Ukraine's surprise attack in Russia.

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Quick hits.

1. Former White House adviser Elon Musk criticized the “big, beautiful” government spending bill backed by President Donald Trump, calling it a “disgusting abomination.” The White House acknowledged Musk’s comments but said President Trump stands by the bill. (The comments)
2. The Trump administration sent a request to congressional leaders to rescind $9.4 billion in previously approved spending, primarily for foreign aid. (The request)
3. Meta announced a 20-year deal to buy nuclear power from an Illinois plant, which the company says will support its artificial intelligence capabilities. (The announcement)
4. President Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%. (The order)
5. The Dutch government dissolved after the conservative Freedom Party pulled out of the country’s ruling coalition over disagreements about plans to curb migration. Prime Minister Dick Schoof resigned, and the remaining coalition parties will decide whether to continue in another form or hold snap elections. (The dissolution) Separately, Mexico’s left-wing Morena Party is likely to gain firm control of the Supreme Court following the country’s judicial elections, expanding its influence in the government. (The election)

Today’s topic.

Ukraine’s drone operation in Russia. On Sunday, Ukraine carried out a coordinated drone attack within Russian territory hitting dozens of Russian bombers. The attack, called Operation Spider’s Web, used 117 Ukrainian drones hidden at four different air bases across Russia to strike 41 Russian aircraft, according to Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian security services claim the strikes caused $7 billion in damage and took out over a third of Russia’s nuclear-capable airplanes. Later on Sunday night, Russia launched 472 drones and seven missiles, striking at least 18 locations in Ukraine, with explosions reported in the cities of Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. 

The strikes preceded scheduled peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on Monday. Representatives from both sides said they made no real progress towards a peace deal, though they did agree to an exchange of dead and wounded soldiers.

Ukraine’s attacks are the deepest strikes into Russia since its full-scale ground invasion of Ukraine in 2022, hitting four air bases stretching from the Finnish border to eastern Siberia, including one base 2,800 miles from Ukraine in eastern Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defence also mentioned attacks in Amur Oblast, but damages have not been confirmed. The operation used bomb-laden drones hidden in remotely opened roofs of wooden sheds, which were loaded onto 18-wheeler trucks and parked near military bases before simultaneously opening and releasing the drones. 

Independent sources confirmed that Russian Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers, as well as an A-50 radar detection and command aircraft and supersonic Tu-160 bomber, were destroyed in the attacks, though the exact number of aircraft destroyed has not been verified. The airplanes Ukraine hit span from Soviet-era propeller planes in the Tu-95 to modern aircraft like the Tu-160, the largest combat aircraft in the world, but they are all part of the core platform Russia uses for strategic bombing and battlefield coordination. 

The Ukrainian drone operation is a significant event in a war that does not appear to be slowing down. Also on Sunday, explosions caused two bridges in western Russia to collapse, with one incident derailing a train, killing seven people and injuring dozens more. Then on Tuesday, Ukraine struck the Kerch bridge connecting Russia to Crimea for the third time since 2022, hitting a support with underwater explosives and damaging Russia’s only direct connection to the occupied peninsula. Later that day, a Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Sumy killed four people and injured 28. Ukraine does not claim credit for the bridge collapses killing civilians in Russia, and the Kerch bridge has since been re-opened. 

Russia acknowledged the losses in the recent strikes but said the impact was smaller than Ukraine claimed. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called Operation Spider’s Web a “brilliant success” and said the drone attacks had been planned for over a year and a half.

The United States was not informed of Ukraine’s attack in advance, but Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was given a full briefing afterward. President Donald Trump has not commented on the recent strikes or peace talks.

We’ll get into what the left, right, and international writers are saying about the latest in the war below. Then, I’ll give my take.

What the left is saying.

• The left praises the attack as a creative operation with the potential to alter the course of the war.
• Some say Ukraine’s innovation with drone technology has significant implications for the future of warfare. 

In CNN, Nick Paton Walsh said “Ukraine’s wily drone strikes expose Russia’s vulnerability and could shift war’s narrative.”

“It may be hard to fathom the precise impact of Ukraine’s wily drone assault on Russian air bases thousands of miles beyond the Ukrainian border. Kyiv said 41 long-range bomber jets were set aflame and that the attacks hit 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers at its main bases,” Walsh wrote. “It will become clear in the months ahead to what extent this really dents the terror the air raid sirens bring across Ukraine. But if what Kyiv says is true – 117 relatively cheap drones taking out dozens of planes and causing what one security source estimated to be $7 billion in damage – then the economics of the war have shifted.”

“In late 2022, the Ukrainians struck supply lines across occupied northern parts of Ukraine, causing a swift and embarrassing collapse of Russian positions. In 2023, they hit the Kerch Strait bridge linking Russia to occupied Crimea. And last year they invaded Kursk, Russia proper, exposing the vulnerability of the Russian war machine’s borders,” Walsh said. “On each occasion, the narrative of the war swung back in Ukraine’s favor. But no time is it needed more than this week, after months in which the vital plank of US support has been in doubt, and as Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for a second round of peace talks in Turkey.”

For The Council on Foreign Relations, Michael C. Horowitz called the operation “the future of drone warfare.”

“Ukraine’s devastating attack demonstrates once again that we have entered the era of precise mass in war. The combination of AI and autonomous weapons, precision guidance, and commercial manufacturing mean that low-cost precision strikes are now accessible to almost any state or militant group,” Horowitz wrote. “The attack will not change the balance of forces along Ukraine’s frontlines, but it does show the country’s ability to strike in ways that will undoubtedly shape Russian expectations on the future of the conflict. [The damage] proves yet again Ukraine’s determination to resist Russia’s invasion and continued military operations.”

“Precision strike used to be something only the most advanced states could access, and traditional precision strike weapons like the Tomahawk cruise missile cost millions of dollars per shot. Now, more actors have the ability to deliver precision strikes at ever greater distances, even if their systems are not incredibly sophisticated,” Horowitz said. “This ability to use precise mass capabilities at speed and scale—especially when fused with advancing AI for guidance—places enormous pressure on defensive measures. Think of the U.S. Navy, which has spent billions of dollars in the Red Sea in recent years to defend itself and commercial shipping from inexpensive precise mass systems used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.”

What the right is saying.

• Some on the right say the operation shows Ukraine’s resilience and should reinvigorate U.S. support for their war effort.
• Others say the success of the mission will be short lived. 

The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote “Ukraine still isn’t defeated.”

“Ukraine’s daring weekend drone attack on military bases deep inside Russia is a brilliant example of creativity and resolve. Ukraine sources say it was able to smuggle drones across Russia, fire them at close proximity to air bases, and destroy numerous aircraft. The planes reportedly included bombers that fire cruise missiles at Ukraine and some that can carry nuclear payloads,” the board said. “The drone raids won’t alter the course of the war, but they show the ability of Ukraine to strike far from its border with Russia. The intelligence required to pull off the operation, supposedly in the planning for 18 months, is also reason for the Kremlin to be discomfited.”

“Russia still has the advantage in firepower, especially in missiles that need to be intercepted with Ukraine’s dwindling supply of air-defense interceptors. The Trump Administration says it wants to stop the killing, but the best way to do that is to supply more air defenses to Kyiv,” the board wrote. “Republicans want to defer to Mr. Trump, but Senators aren’t potted plants. Sooner rather than later, they need to show they mean what they say about helping a desperate ally fight for its freedom against a marauding dictator who won’t stop if he succeeds in Ukraine.”

In UnHerd, Jennifer Kavanagh argued the “drone attack may do Ukraine more harm than good.”

“Ukraine’s ‘Operation Spiderweb’ carried a high shock value, not only for its creativity but also for the targets chosen and the resulting visuals of Russian aircraft aflame,” Kavanagh said. “Any Ukrainian victory will be Pyrrhic, however. The loss of some of its strategic long-range bombers, if confirmed, would undoubtedly be a blow to Russia’s military force and will be especially concerning to Moscow given the role the aircraft play in the country’s nuclear deterrent. But the costs imposed by Ukraine’s attack will not prevent Russia from continuing its war of attrition on Ukraine’s eastern front, or force it to back off its campaign of drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.

“Even in the attack’s aftermath, Russia has a large and capable air force ready to support the war in Ukraine. Just as importantly, the Kremlin’s military advantage will be unaffected by the latest strike. Russia’s defence production will proceed unabated, and Moscow will continue to exploit Ukraine’s shortages of manpower and weapons to take additional ground in Ukraine’s eastern regions, whittling away Kyiv’s remaining sovereign territory,” Kavanagh wrote. “Far from pushing for peace, Russia is likely to retaliate by escalating attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure or surging Russian forces along the line of contact.”

What writers abroad are saying.

• Some writers say the operation is likely to cause paranoia in Russian society.
• Others call on Ukraine’s allies to step up their support. 

In The Moscow Times, Kevin Riehle said the attack is “a recipe for Russian paranoia.”

“Institutional paranoia is part of the Russian government’s philosophy that political unity is strength while political division is weakness. If leaders can maintain unity of mind and purpose amongst the Russian population, especially concerning Ukraine, then Russia appears strong, and appearing strong is the objective,” Riehle wrote. “However, paranoia is fragile. To maintain it, the Russian security system must portray itself as invincible, catching genuine and imagined malefactors and broadcasting their arrests to blur the line between real and illusion.”

“What happens when real attacks occur, and the bona fide threat becomes more fearsome than the security system itself?... Ukraine’s audacious drone attack undermines the Russian security system itself just as much as it poses a military threat. The reality of the threat risks exposing the security system as incompetent. Heavy-handed security measures didn’t work,” Riehle said. “The [Federal Security Service (FSB)] will crack down hard on Russian society and marshal its domestic security powers in response to these drone attacks. But the FSB itself was the victim. If it cannot monitor threats under its own nose, what can it do? Are the FSB’s repressive KGB-like tactics meaningless?”

For the Center for European Policy Analysis, Edward Lucas called the operation “the most audacious attack of the war.”

“Russian military aviation planners will hurry to find hardened bunkers for their remaining warplanes. But so much of an advanced society’s life happens in the open air. What about civilian airliners sitting at airports? Or critical infrastructure?,” Lucas wrote. “Russian planners will doubtless learn lessons from this and try similar stunts in Ukraine now or against NATO later. Western planners should be worrying about that… It may also impress the commander-in-chief in the White House. He likes winners. Putin now looks like a loser, humiliated by a smaller, weaker country.

“Instead of slow-boating discussions about Ukraine’s entry into NATO, Western countries should be hurrying to ask their friends in Kyiv for defense and security assistance against Russia. In the meantime, they should send money,” Lucas said. “The immediate effect is in the war of narratives. Ukraine has given a clear answer to Donald Trump’s taunt, ‘You don’t have the cards.’ Not only has it shown new capabilities but also it deployed them without the help, consent, or even knowledge of its Western supporters.”

My take.

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• This attack shows how traditional military force can be vulnerable against a few drones and some ingenuity.
• Ukraine has a right to defend itself as it sees fit, and it isn’t a scandal that the U.S. wasn’t involved.
• I’m guardedly optimistic about what this means for the future of this war.

What Ukraine just did has fascinating and frightening technological implications for the future of warfare — not just for them, but for us, too. 

Some details of the mission are still unclear, but it appears the Ukrainian army damaged or destroyed a third of the bombers that Russia uses as strategic cruise missile carriers without putting a single soldier on the ground or crossing a single fighter jet into Russian airspace. While the attack may not provide a decisive blow, it does provide a reminder that Russia has serious vulnerabilities in the war — and that Ukraine continues to do a lot with the little it has to stop itself from being toppled by a much larger, better armed adversary. Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has leveraged an interesting mix of old and new technologies to conduct creative military operations that have surprised Russia and, at times, even the U.S. 

The latest operation demonstrates the vital importance drones are going to play in the next era of conflict across the globe. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, drones were mostly thought of as surveillance tools; now, “one-way attack” drones executing low-cost and high-impact strikes like this are becoming ubiquitous. These kinds of strikes allow less advanced militaries (like Ukraine's) to conduct precision strikes that used to be reserved for the most sophisticated militaries (like Russia’s, or ours). 

Consider the implications for future conflicts — military infrastructures will become increasingly vulnerable to attacks like this, even in secure bases deep inside a country’s interior. Indeed, some writers are already raising red flags about how a country like China could conduct much more sophisticated versions of this attack on U.S. soil, and how woefully unprepared the U.S. currently is to defend against such an attack. I fully expect advanced militaries across the globe to respond to this attack by investing more in smaller drones like those Ukraine is producing (thousands per day, according to some reports), as well as better battery technology to power those drones and explosives tailored specifically for these extremely light aircrafts to carry.

I also want to spare some words for the reaction to Ukraine’s attack from the punditry. Some people immediately jumped on the fact that President Trump was uninformed of the drone operation, as if that somehow undermines its success in any way. Others asked who gave Zelensky the authority to attack Russia, apparently forgetting his country is at war and doesn’t have to ask anybody for permission to fight back. This has been a consistent theme of the war: Ukraine is defending itself against an invader, yet what it is or isn’t allowed to do is constantly policed by people who seem to believe it should limit its options to the menu the United States provides for it. 

So, again, a reality check: Strikes like this — literally bombing aircraft its enemy is using to fight a war against it — are obviously well within Ukraine’s rights. Ukraine does not need U.S. approval to conduct such an operation, and the U.S. shouldn’t expect Ukraine to coordinate with it, particularly when the U.S. is actively threatening to pull its support. Zelensky seems to understand the basic fact that no cavalry is coming, and that winning the war — or surviving it until a favorable deal for peace emerges — is his only option. 

Putin gave us a clear reminder nine days ago — then another on Sunday, another on Monday, and another on Tuesday — that he has no interest in peace, and I suspect the only way to get him to come to the table on a reasonable deal is to make the reality that this war is bad for him and bad for Russia undeniable. Apparently the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers are not doing the trick — so maybe the destruction of critical, conspicuous parts of the Russian military machine will help. 

In plain terms, Ukraine just destroyed a huge swath of valuable Russian military infrastructure, on Russian soil, and it appears they did it without killing a single civilian. That is a tremendous feat of military ingenuity. Given that they are defending themselves from an invasion Putin could end at any time, it’s also the kind of attack that allows them to retain the moral high ground. 

For all of this, they should get little else besides praise — and they may even have gained some leverage towards forcing an acceptable peace deal to permanently end the war.

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Your questions, answered.

Q: I have some questions about Gavin Newsom’s recent posts online. I saw some videos saying he is trying to negotiate trade deals with other countries independently from the Trump administration. Is that something that he can legally do? I also saw that he is trying to encourage Canadians to travel to California. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.

— Caroline from Oakland, California

Isaac Saul, Executive Editor: We’ll start with the easy stuff first: Yes, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is seeking trade deals with international trading partners. No, governors do not have the power to negotiate tariff deals with foreign governments. That is to say, Newsom cannot impose tariffs on other countries or ignore the ones that President Trump and the federal government authorize, but he can offer incentives to private companies, domestic and abroad, to bring their business to California.

While he can’t legally negotiate a trade deal without the federal government, Newsom does have significant weight to throw around. California now has the fourth-largest economy in the world, so the state’s governor has more leverage than any other state-level politician in the country; retailers who want to sell to the entire U.S. market comply with California policies, making them de facto standards for the rest of the country. As just one example: you have to buy mattresses with flame retardants California requires, even if you live on the other side of the country.

Another thing Newsom can do is promote tourism, and you can see him appealing to Canadians to come visit California in videos like this. As Newsom says in the video, some two million Canadians visited California last year — a full 13% of California’s roughly 15 million annual visitors and part of its massive $157 billion tourism industry — so it is certainly in the governor’s interest to keep that flow of tourists coming. In doing so, it’s also in his interest to distance himself from Trump's combative international policies, especially as foreign travel spending in the U.S. is expected to decline by about 7% this year. 

In my view, Newsom is doing two things: 1) Protecting his state’s interests and 2) preparing for a 2028 presidential run. As I said when the House Freedom Caucus pushed its agenda under President Joe Biden, I typically support politicians maximizing their power to pursue the goals the voters put them there to pursue. And Newsom isn’t the only governor doing this — governors in states from Washington to Maine are trying to court Canadian businesses and tourism to their states by distancing themselves from Washington, D.C. 

All this is to say: Keep Newsom's political motivations in mind when considering these moves. Generally speaking, I don't see any issue with Newsom — or any other governor — using his leverage to protect his state. There are interesting questions to ask about how much influence we want a single governor in a single state to have, but there’s no doubt California’s size and economic influence grant Newsom a great deal of power on economic questions like these.

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Under the radar.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration rescinded a Biden-era directive to health care providers performing emergency abortions that they are protected under federal law, even those operating in states with abortion bans. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra issued the guidance in 2022 shortly after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, intending to ensure that emergency abortion providers would not deny care out of fear of prosecution. The Trump administration said the policy does not “reflect the policy of this administration,” though it will continue to enforce a federal law requiring emergency rooms to perform necessary care for anyone seeking it. Axios has the story.

Numbers.

• 36 of 57. The estimated number of Russian Tu-95 bombers that were operational prior to Ukraine’s June 1 strikes on Russian airbases, according to Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yurii Ihnat. 
• 7. The estimated number of Russian Tu-95 bombers that were destroyed in the strikes, according to a senior Western official. 
• 12. The number of Russian military aircraft verified to have sustained damage in the strikes, according to a New York Times analysis. 
• 20,000. The approximate number of long-range drones launched by Russia since late 2022, according to Bloomberg. 
• 60–70%. The proportion of damage and destruction to Russian equipment caused by drones in the war, according to the Royal United Services Institute.
• 16. The average amount, in square miles, that Russia’s military has advanced into Ukrainian territory per week in 2025, according to a Bloomberg analysis. 
• 48. The average amount, in square miles, that Russia’s military advanced into Ukrainian territory per week between mid-August 2024 and the end of the year.
• 0.15%. The estimated percentage of Ukrainian territory seized by Russia since January 2025.
• 2,600. The approximate distance from the frontlines of the war, in miles, of Russia’s military base in the Irkutsk region, which was targeted in the drone strikes. 

The extras.

• One year ago today we covered the Mexican presidential election.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was Isaac’s Friday edition on Zionism.
• Nothing to do with politics: A video compilation of Sicily’s Mt. Etna erupting.
• Yesterday’s survey: 2,268 readers answered our survey on recent attacks against Jews in the U.S. with 39% saying they are fully motivated by antisemitism. “My mind wants to believe that they are attacks against the government policies of the state of Israel. Sadly, my heart is telling my mind that there is a lot of emotional hatred in the world for reasons that have little to do with reality,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

China is the world’s biggest air polluter, but a recent analysis by a climate reporting website found that China’s emissions are on the decline. Over the last 12 months, China's emissions have decreased 1%, a drop attributed to the country’s recent embrace of green energy projects. Driven by a 5.8% reduction in power-sector emissions, analysts observed a 1.6% year-on-year decline in the first quarter of 2025, leading some analysts to predict that this trend will continue throughout 2025. Positive News has the story.

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