Elon comes for the Big Beautiful Bill.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Today’s read: 12 minutes.

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Quick hits.

1. BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that members of majority groups do not have a higher bar to prove discrimination, lowering the requirements for workers to sue for reverse discrimination. (The ruling)
2. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation barring travel to the United States by citizens of Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. (The ban)
3. President Trump signed an executive order revoking Harvard University's permission to host incoming international students. (The order) Separately, the Department of Education said that Columbia University has failed to meet accreditation standards due to an alleged “violation of federal antidiscrimination laws.” (The claim)
4. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said he would not accept the United States’s proposal that Iran abandon its uranium enrichment as part of a nuclear deal. (The comments) Separately, President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and reported that Putin plans to respond to Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on Russian airfields. (The call)
5. President Trump directed the counsel to the president and Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate former President Joe Biden’s end-of-term actions due to purported questions about his mental state. The order specifically identifies Biden’s judicial appointments, pardons, and executive actions as subject to investigation. (The order)
6. A federal judge temporarily blocked the deportation of the wife and five children of Mohamed Soliman, who is accused of carrying out the attack on a Jewish community group in Boulder, Colorado. The order bars their deportations while legal challenges play out. (The block)

Today’s topic.

Elon Musk’s break with Trump. On Tuesday, former White House adviser Elon Musk escalated his criticisms of the budget reconciliation “big beautiful bill” passed by House Republicans, calling it “a disgusting abomination.” Though he did not mention President Donald Trump by name, Musk’s comments underscore a growing divide between the tech CEO and the president, who aggressively lobbied for the bill and remains supportive of it. Musk delivered the criticism as he departed his official role as a “special government employee” leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Back up: On May 22, the House passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in a 215–214 vote, advancing a series of Trump administration priorities, including a permanent extension of the 2017 tax cuts, additional funding for border security, and Medicaid reforms. The Senate is currently considering the bill and is expected to make significant changes from the House version, which the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates would add $2.4 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade. 

We covered the House debate over the bill here.

In recent weeks, Musk has expressed displeasure with the bill, saying he was “disappointed” with its financial impact and suggesting it would undermine his work with DOGE. Musk continued his criticisms of the spending package on Wednesday, posting, “This immense level of overspending will drive America into debt slavery!”

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to the comments, saying, “The president already knows where Elon Musk stood on this bill. It doesn't change the president's opinion.”

The criticisms come at the end of Musk’s tenure in the administration, which was defined by aggressive efforts to cut federal spending and reduce the government workforce. After initially setting a goal of $2 trillion in cuts, Musk reduced the target to $1 trillion and then $150 billion. DOGE claims to have generated $180 billion in savings to date, though that figure is widely disputed. Furthermore, some nonpartisan analysts have projected that the downstream effects of DOGE’s cuts will cost $135 billion this fiscal year. 

As a special government employee (an unpaid advisory position), Musk was allowed to work up to 130 days in the administration for the calendar year. While he reportedly asked the White House to stay in the role beyond this timeframe, his request was not met, and he officially left his role on May 28. 

Today, we’ll share views from the right and left on Musk’s criticism of the “big beautiful bill” and his tenure in the Trump administration. Then, my take.

What the right is saying.

• The right is mixed on Musk’s comments, with many agreeing with his points about the bill but questioning his delivery. 
• Some criticize Musk for how he’s handled his departure from the administration.
• Others say Musk’s tenure accomplished little except tarnishing his own image.

In Fox News, David Marcus wrote “Musk vs. MAGA on Big, Beautiful Bill, but GOP needs both.”

“Last week, there were rumblings that Elon Musk had reservations about President Donald Trump’s so-called big, beautiful bill. This week, Musk, shall we say, clarified his position, calling the legislation a ‘disgusting abomination,’” Marcus said. “And yes, his concerns that this bill, now in the Senate, could balloon the national debt, though disputed by the White House, are not particularly far-fetched… The problem for those like Musk, who want to see the bill revamped to cut the debt is not just that GOP margins in Congress are as narrow as a coin slot, it's that Trump’s base, the only group of people he consistently pleases, like the bill, and they like it a lot.”

“This is a real impasse between Musk and Trump’s base, and Musk has proven to be a very valuable ally not just for Trump but for the GOP in general… Musk also has the money needed to bankroll any campaign he chooses to, and conversely, to use that money to primary those Republicans he deems ineffective on the debt, a threat he made explicit this week,” Marcus wrote. “Money carries a lot of water, but at the end of the day, if you are a candidate for Congress in a GOP primary, what do you want more, a blank check from Elon Musk, or an endorsement from Donald Trump? For now, obviously the latter.”

In Townhall, Matt Vespa called Musk’s comments “totally unnecessary.”

“As the budget reconciliation battle rages on the Hill, Elon Musk, who has left his position as senior adviser to President Trump, has broken his silence about the ‘big, beautiful bill’: he hates it,” Vespa said. “It was unnecessary, and part of me thinks the billionaire entrepreneur and Tesla CEO is venting over congressional Republicans not codifying the cuts he and the Department of Government Efficiency highlighted for months; however, that cannot be done through reconciliation.”

“No doubt that is disappointing, but let’s not nuke a bill that accomplishes what most Republicans want. It makes the Trump tax cuts permanent and provides a mountain of cash for border security and immigration measures. It’s not perfect; nothing is from DC, but remember the old saying: perfect is the enemy of the good,” Vespa wrote. “Trump also trained his fire on one Republican who is bound to give us agita in the Senate, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who seems very much at peace [with] slapping working families with a massive tax hike if this bill fails.”

In National Review, Jeffrey Blehar asked “what did Elon Musk actually accomplish, except his own downfall?”

“One can only imagine how unhappy the Trump administration is with this, especially since several Senate lawmakers have used the opportunity afforded by Elon’s apostasy to poke their heads out from behind his protective skirt and chip in with their own reservations,” Blehar said. “Perhaps Trump may just let Elon stew online, rather than provoke a MAGA civil war. Perhaps not. Regardless of whether fireworks follow, this was always the way the story was going to end.”

“There is something extremely depressing about this dénouement. Musk entered the MAGA orbit with high hopes — vaingloriously high, perhaps, but born of a genuine commitment to fixing inefficiencies — and departs it leaving little but wreckage behind him. Not only has DOGE’s fizzle-out muted the idea of government-spending reform for the foreseeable future, Musk has mortgaged his own public reputation and future prospects for little perceptible gain,” Blehar wrote. “Though he is distancing himself from Trump now, his original progressive fans will forever hold him — as the man who got Trump elected — partly responsible for what Trump does regardless.”

What the left is saying.

• The left says Musk leaves the government in worse shape than he found it.
• Some suggest his criticisms of the reconciliation bill are driven by self interest. 
• Others say Musk will continue to exert influence on the administration. 

The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board wrote “Elon Musk is putting the DOGE chain saw down, but the damage has been done.”

“DOGE was supposed to weed out waste, fraud, and abuse, but instead turned into a wasteful, fraudulent, and abusive exercise. Musk did grave damage while finding little to no savings and making the government more inefficient,” the board said. “Initially, Musk promised to slash $2 trillion in spending, but quickly lowered that estimate to $1 trillion. In the end, after all the chain saw waving, he cut only $160 billion. That paltry sum by federal standards — about 2.3% of the nearly $7 trillion budget — doesn’t include the $135 billion in estimated severance costs to taxpayers or the litigation fees and lost tax collection from cuts to the IRS staff.”

“Musk’s dismantling of foreign aid programs through the U.S. Agency for International Development has already led to an estimated 300,000 deaths — most of them children. More than 250,000 federal employees have been fired or bought out, according to one estimate, leaving many to battle mental health and stress issues. More than 8,500 contracts and 10,000 grants were terminated with little to no thought of the repercussions,” the board wrote. “Perhaps more consequential is the slashing of jobs and more than $2.6 billion in contracts at the National Institutes of Health, upending medical research and clinical trials aimed at finding cures for diseases like Alzheimer’s, cancer, and AIDS.”

In Slate, Jim Newell said “Musk picked the most vapid [criticism]” of Trump’s bill. 

“Musk’s sneak attack ultimately reinforces why it’s a relief that he’s no longer directly involved in government, and why he should continue to be pushed as far away as possible… His criticism of it as ‘pork-filled’ is an especially unusual angle of approach. ‘Pork’ is a catchall word used to describe wasteful spending often doled out to special interest groups,” Newell wrote. “But ‘pork’ is not the issue with the bill. In dollars and cents, the bill… cuts taxes to the tune of $3.7 trillion over 10 years and cuts spending $1.3 trillion, increasing the deficit by $2.4 trillion. The biggest spending measures in the bill are defense upgrades and a massive boost for border security and internal immigration enforcement — things Musk should like.”

“If Musk is crying ‘pork’ for the same reason most people do — to try to kill a bill they dislike for any old reason — then why does he want to kill it? There’s been some reporting to back up [House Speaker] Johnson’s speculation that the loss of electric vehicle tax credits has consumed Musk,” Newell said. “Even if you support electric vehicle tax incentives, it’s a problem that a guy who doesn’t really understand what’s going on has this much power. It’s a problem that because of his net worth and lack of filter, he can get in a momentary snit, burp out an angry post, and send Washington scurrying.”

In The Daily Beast, Paul Waldman suggested “Elon Musk isn’t really leaving the White House.”

“To some it seems Musk is moving on from his role as one of the main (and most polarizing) characters in our current political drama. It might be pressure from shareholders, or it might be the shock of what happened last month in Wisconsin. Musk invested millions of dollars in the hope of electing a conservative to the state’s Supreme Court — and put his personal brand on the line in public appearances. His candidate lost badly, and he may have come to the realization that voters don’t really like him,” Waldman wrote. “But don’t think Musk is done exercising his considerable influence over our government and the people who work in it. He will be a dangerous force in our politics for the foreseeable future.

“Does anyone really think he’ll sit on the sidelines in the next election, when his billions could ensure another friendly executive branch? He, his people, and his interests have burrowed deeply into the government, and he has too much at stake to let that clout wither away or be uprooted,” Waldman said. Furthermore, “Muskism as a governing philosophy — the assumption that just about everything government does is bad and should be undermined—  is still in force. Republicans have adopted it as a kind of berserker version of their traditional ‘small government’ conservatism.”

My take.

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• This fallout was entirely predictable and incredibly interesting.
• Musk is right to criticize this bill, and Republicans are right to criticize Musk’s actions within the government.
• There’s no telling what happens now, but if Musk and Trump end up fighting for influence, Trump will win.

Well, if it’s a break-up, it’s certainly one of the most predictable political break-ups I’ve ever seen.

Last week on the Sunday podcast, we discussed Musk’s departure from DOGE and his time as a government employee. One of the things I brought up was that Musk could have exited the federal government quietly, or while celebrating DOGE’s achievements. But instead, as of Thursday’s recording, he had started soft-peddling some new criticism of the administration. In just a few days, he had:

• Gone on CBS Sunday Morning and criticized the Big Beautiful Bill, saying a bill could be big or beautiful, but he was unsure if it could be both
• Said that he agreed with much of the administration’s actions, but disagreed on some and had to be careful about stating that disagreement
• Told a separate interviewer he was not planning to spend more money in politics because he had “done enough”

This left me wondering aloud if we were about to see a more serious rupture in the relationship. This week, Musk didn’t waste time giving us the answer. He’s been on an absolute tear against Trump and the GOP, describing their signature legislation in some of the harshest terms possible — “insane,” “debt slavery,” a ”disgusting abomination,” and the “largest increase in the debt ceiling in U.S. history” — and has said that Americans should “fire all politicians who betrayed the American people.” He added, for clarity, that “bankrupting America is NOT ok.” He’s rolling out classic Muskian memes against it, like “kill [the] bill,” and re-posting images of trains labeled “Trump’s big beautiful bill” smashing into buses labeled “savings from DOGE.”

Of course, Musk is right. As I’ve been saying, The Big Beautiful Bill is an absolute deficit and debt bomb. It is a near-complete betrayal of many of Trump’s promises. It would add more to the national debt than the 2017 tax cuts, the pandemic CARES Act, Biden's stimulus, and the Inflation Reduction Act combined. It would run large annual deficits even under optimistic economic forecasts. The budget models that predict this outcome are reliable and have proven track records, including successfully predicting the outcome of Trump's 2017 tax bill — so we should take the warnings seriously. 

That Musk is only now taking this tack is both interesting and frustrating. The general premise of this bill has been circulating for months, and if Musk wanted to use his leverage to stop or change it, then he could have been much more effective pressuring House Republicans before the bill passed the lower chamber, and while he was still working for the government. Does his opposition even matter now? 

As much as this might be a low-brow pull, “Musk v. Trump” is the kind of heavyweight political fight that very much piques my interest. Trump wants the bill to pass. Musk wants the bill to die. Both will leverage money, political support, threats, meme wars, and blustery comments to the press to get their wish. Who comes out on top? (For the record, my money is always on Trump, but I don’t think Musk’s influence should be underestimated.)

Naturally, Musk’s excoriation of the GOP and the Trump administration is having the magical effect of allowing all his targets to say how they really feel. Republican lawmakers have run to the media to (anonymously) trash Musk as “a complete joke” who had “no idea” what he was doing and that “nobody really wanted him” there. Other Republicans are speculating that Musk only hates the bill because it eliminates tax credits for Tesla. 

Which, hey, I’m glad we’re all being honest. Musk is right about the bill and right about the GOP lawmakers who cosplay as budget hawks whenever Democrats are in power, then abandon any pretense of solving our debt or deficit crisis once power changes hands (with the exception of people like the cantankerous Kentuckians, Rand Paul (R-KY) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), who are at least principled and consistent). 

Likewise, the GOP lawmakers are right about Musk. DOGE was a near complete failure. Its savings were a tiny fraction of what Musk promised, even after he revised his projections downwards, and odds are better than even that DOGE has actually cost the taxpayers money by giving out so much severance, inviting so many legal challenges, and causing so much dysfunction that it left behind a less efficient government. Republicans (and Democrats) are also right to criticize Musk for happily taking government contracts with SpaceX while close to the president, and they’re right to question his real motivations for lashing out at a bill that didn’t provide a lucrative Federal Aviation Authority contract to Starlink or extend electric vehicle credits that would benefit Tesla. 

So, Musk probably cost the taxpayers money with DOGE, missed a once-in-a-generation opportunity to actually reduce fraud and waste, and did nothing (until now) to stop the far more important budget-busting bill Republicans and Trump have been pushing for months.

Now what? I honestly have no idea where this goes, which is at least exciting. Even before Musk entered the fray, I thought this bill could run into some real speed bumps in the Senate. Now that some House members finally read the bill (after voting for it), they seem to be worried about its content and are demanding changes. The bill’s prospects of passage become even more tenuous with Musk thumbing the scale. If you believe that the MAGA embrace of Musk is genuine, the bill could die with increased pressure on Republican lawmakers from their constituents who take Musk’s message to heart. However, the GOP could hold together and draw Trump into the fight to pass the bill, which would ostracize Musk from MAGA altogether. Or maybe this is the last we hear from Musk about this bill, and Trump and Musk enter a new, uncomfortable period of silent detente.

As of now, Trump hasn’t responded directly to any of Musk’s potshots. To me, how and when he does will determine the direction of this intraparty fracas. I’m still skeptical Musk has enough political sway to make a meaningful dent in Trump’s grip on the party, but I’m also keenly aware that I underestimated his influence heading into the 2024 election, and I left that experience with some egg on my face. 

One thing is for sure, though: Musk seems hellbent on making an already difficult-to-pass bill much more difficult to pass, and Republicans are still far from the finish line on getting the requisite votes to make their budget law.

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Your questions, answered.

Q: Can you check in on last year’s Mexican elections?

— Note to self, June 2024

Tangle: Every once in a while, we use this space to dive back into a topic we’ve covered in the past to see how it’s progressed once the news cycle has rolled on. Last year, we published a piece on Mexico electing Claudia Sheinbaum as president, and yesterday we included the Mexican judicial elections in a quick hit. So we felt it was a good time to explore President Sheinbaum’s first year and check in on the Mexican electorate.

Former Mexico City mayor and climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum was elected last year with about 60% of the vote, and now enjoys an approval rating of over 80%. Her term so far has been defined by several major policy actions and events.

First, judicial reforms. Sheinbaum pushed the legislature to reduce the number of Supreme Court justices from 11 to 9 and institute election by popular vote for federal and state judges in Mexico, starting this year. In the first election following the decision, only 13% of the electorate voted, and those who participated elected a slate of justices aligned with Sheinbaum’s Morena Party. 

Second, the country’s relationship with the United States. So far this year, Sheinbaum has pushed back against President Trump’s proposed tariffs and his designation of cartels as terrorist organizations. However, she has also ramped up the federal police force to fight against the cartels and increased cooperation with U.S. intelligence agencies. Her pushback against Trump has won her plaudits within Mexico, while her security efforts earned praise from Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. 

President Sheinbaum has also expanded social welfare programs, increased the minimum wage, is pushing a progressive environmental agenda, and dissolved autonomous regulatory federal agencies. While Sheinbaum is proving to be popular with the electorate, critics worry that she is consolidating too much power within the government and could be eroding Mexico’s democracy.

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Under the radar.

On Tuesday, the Justice Department announced charges against two Chinese nationals for allegedly attempting to transport a toxic fungus — classified as a “dangerous biological pathogen” — into the United States. The fungus causes head blight disease in wheat, barley, corn and other crops, and the toxins it produces can cause vomiting and liver damage in humans. The two people arrested — Yunqing Jian, a researcher at the University of Michigan, and her boyfriend, Zunyong Liu — were studying biological pathogens that can infect crops. Liu was stopped at Detroit Metropolitan Airport and questioned by Customs and Border Protection officers, who found plastic bags containing strains of the fungus in his backpack. Prosecutors say electronic communications between Jian and Liu show that they communicated about moving biological material beforehand and may have previously smuggled seeds into the U.S. The Washington Post has the story.

Numbers.

• 130. The maximum number of days that a special government employee — Elon Musk’s designation in the Trump administration — can work in the government during a 365-day period. 
• –5.7%. Elon Musk’s net favorability on January 20, 2025, according to Silver Bulletin. 
• –13.9%. Musk’s net favorability on June 4, 2025.
• +4.0%. Musk’s net favorability on June 4, 2024.
• $170.0 billion. The total amount of savings that were claimed by the Department of Government Efficiency on May 22, 2025. 
• $70.9 billion. The sum of savings that were listed on DOGE’s website on May 22. 
• $41.2 billion. The sum of savings that had documentation attached for verification on May 22, according to Sky News. 
• 61,296. The number of government employees laid off by DOGE in 2025, according to Layoffs.fyi. 
• 171,843. The total federal worker departures in 2025. 

The extras.

• One year ago today we covered Dr. Fauci's congressional testimony.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was Elon Musk calling the House bill a “disgusting abomination.”
• Nothing to do with politics: An Ohio traffic stop that caught a raccoon with a meth pipe.
• Something to do with politics: Missed yesterday’s newsletter? Tangle Senior Editor Will Kaback broke down Ukraine’s surprise drone attack on Russia in an Instagram reel. 
• Yesterday’s survey: 2,856 readers answered our survey on Ukraine’s drone operation with 63% saying they are hopeful about its implications on this war but concerned about future wars. “Good for Ukraine but future wars are forever changed,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

A deli and grocery store in Staten Island, New York, incentivizes kids to get good grades by making them an offer: improve your grades, or maintain good ones, and take home free goodies from the store. Wail Alselwi, co-owner and manager of the store, started the report card incentive in 2023 to help his 12-year-old neighbor make the honor roll, which he eventually did. The initiative has gained support from social media with a GoFundMe raising nearly $50,000. Today has the story.

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