Election fraud is almost dead.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is my semi-regular newsletter A Grain of Saul.

Around 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday night, as it became clear we were headed for the “blue tsunami,” a YouTube viewer asked a question on the Tangle live stream: What are the odds Donald Trump claims fraud?

I answered with little hesitation: 100%.

Why not, after all? He alleged votes were stolen in 2016 when he won, in 2018 after the first midterm blue wave, in 2020 when he lost, in 2022 when the red wave became a red trickle, and in 2024 (again) when he won. Just a few months ago, he gave a national address to warn Americans that our elections were not secure (they are), and then amplified all manner of silly conspiracies about how exactly our elections were being stolen. He’s launched a nationwide task force to find and prosecute noncitizen voters (so far, 236 cases of 158 million ballots cast). Over and over and over, he’s suggested our elections are rigged, illegal immigrants are voting in droves, and Democrats are behind it all.

And then, on Tuesday night, this headline from The New York Times blared across my feed: