I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”
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Measuring the success of a presidency is difficult.
Here in this newsletter, I’ve dismissed the importance of presidential rankings, and when reviewing past presidents I’ve focused mostly on the promises they made while campaigning and how those promises held up when they were in office. With President Biden set to leave office on Monday, we’ll review his presidency with the same standards, and the same critical eye, next Friday.
But this year, a change in administration and a larger staff has afforded us a new opportunity: to set some benchmarks that we can check back on in two and four years. Doing something as expansive as this hasn’t been possible for me, alone, in the past. But with the growth of our team over the last four years, I wanted to take advantage of our deep roster to do something much bigger and more comprehensive. So, as a team (and with the help of our readers), we’ve decided to lay out a series of reference points for both the incoming administration and the country as President Trump heads into office.
We’ve broken the benchmarks into three broad groups:
1) Traditional economic metrics presidents are judged by (like the price of gas and unemployment rates) and economic metrics we think administrations should be judged by (like how many people have credit card debt).
2) Promises. That is, the things President Trump says he is going to do (on the campaign trail and since his victory), and an answer as to whether he’s done them. Note: We are not giving our opinion on Trump’s promises, just his ability to follow through on them.
3) National interests. That is, the state of our national security abroad, the safety of the American people at home, and the strength of our domestic institutions.
4) Lastly, we’ll share some predictions from commentators we found noteworthy and wanted to capture for posterity, so we can refer back to what the mood is on Trump now when he leaves office later.
It’s worth noting here that some of our benchmarks are hard metrics, some are more qualitative assessments, and some may be more subjective evaluations. We think all of these issues are important, and don’t want to track only the ones that are easy to measure.
Today, we’re going to share a list of these benchmarks, with some numbers or assessments on where they stand today. We’ve also set a calendar reminder to publish newsletters checking in on them in two and four years, so we’ll come back to the list then and explore how the Trump administration — and the country — is doing.
Metrics.
Issue: Gas prices
What we’ll track: AAA’s fuel prices tracker to mark the national average for the price of a gallon of gas.
Where things stand: As of January 17, 2025, the national average for the price of a gallon of regular gas is $3.12. That price is slightly up from $3.09 per gallon a year ago.
Issue: Housing prices
What we’ll track: Both home prices and the health of the rental market. We’ll use two metrics to track home prices: the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, and the median home prices as measured by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). We’ll also use two indicators to measure the health of the rental market: First we’ll look at the median U.S. asking rent, then we’ll sample the rental vacancy rates in the ten largest U.S. cities as measured by the Census Bureau.
Note: Housing metrics, especially prices, are often lagging economic indicators, so we should exercise caution when interpreting these numbers.
Where things stand: As of October 2024, the most recent month for which data is currently available, the Case-Shiller Index was 324.22 — up from 312.96 one year prior. Additionally, according to FRED, the median sales price of houses sold in the United States was $420,400 in Q3 2024. In December 2024, the median U.S. asking rent was $1,594, a decrease of 0.3% from the year prior. Lastly, the population-weighted average vacancy rate in the ten largest U.S. metropolitan areas as of Q3 2024 was 6.87%.
Issue: Financial markets
What we’ll track: While the stock market is not the economy, the performance of retail investments is one important indicator of economic health. We’ll read the leading market indices — the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ — as well as the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note.
Where things stand: As of January 16, 2025, the Dow Jones closed at 43,153, the S&P 500 closed at 5,937, and the NASDAQ closed at 19,338; the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note was 4.61%. All of these indices are all up over the last year.
Issue: Personal finances
What we’ll track: Savings and debt of U.S. households. For savings, we’ll use the Personal Savings Rate (PSAVERT), which tracks the percentage of disposable income that households save rather than spend on consumption. For household debt, we’ll use the Federal Reserve of New York’s debt tracker, which also accounts for credit card debt.
Where things stand: As of November 2024, the Personal Saving Rate was 4.4%; total U.S. housing debt was $12.98 trillion as of Q3 2024, and total non-housing debt was $4.96 trillion. Americans’ total credit card balance was $1.17 trillion, an 8.1% increase from the year prior.
Issue: Economic activity
What we’ll track: The growth in and total of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Just using GDP to show the health of a country’s economy is insufficient, but as part of a broader dashboard it is still a very good indicator.
Where things stand: GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in Q3 2024, 3.0% in Q2 2024, and 1.3% in Q1. Total annualized GDP as of Q3 2024 was $29.4 trillion.
Issue: Employment
What we’ll track: Department of Labor data measuring several things: the unemployment rate, nonfarm jobs, the labor force participation rate, and the number of people not in the labor force but seeking a job.
Where things stand: In December 2024, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, with the rate for the previous seven months ranging between 4.1% and 4.2%. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 160 million. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, and 5.5 million people were not in the labor force but said they wanted a job.
Issue: Inflation
What we’ll track: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracking the consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric for inflation).
Where things stand: In December 2024, the CPI increased 2.9% on an unadjusted annual basis and 0.4% from the previous month. Core CPI rose 0.2% from the previous month. In November, the PCE rose 2.4% annually and 0.1% from the previous month.
Issue: Consumer confidence
What we’ll track: Consumer confidence using the University of Michigan’s economic indicators, which use surveying to measure how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about their financial situations, the economy, and their purchasing plans.
Where things stand: The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment was 73.2 in January 2025, a 1.1% decrease from the previous month and a 7.3% decrease from January 2024. The Current Economic Conditions score for January 2025 was 77.9, and the Index of Consumer Expectations was 70.2.
Issue: Interest rates
What we’ll track: Changes to the Federal Reserve’s range for the federal funds rate (also known as the interest rate), as well as the average 30-year mortgage rate as measured by FreddieMac.
Where things stand: The Fed’s interest rate is currently 4.25%–4.50%, and it cut interest rates three times in 2024 for the first time since April 2020. The average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.04%, up from the annual low of 6.08% in September.
Issue: Domestic oil production
What we’ll track: Crude oil production (in barrels per day) based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
Where things stand: In October 2024, U.S. field production of crude oil was 13,457,000 barrels per day. Overall, crude oil production increased by roughly 21% between January 2021 and October 2024 (and 5% between March 2020 and October 2024), and is currently at an all-time high.
Issue: National debt and deficit
What we’ll track: Changes to the national debt (the total amount of outstanding borrowing owed by the U.S. government) and the deficit (total amount the U.S. government has spent exceeding what it has collected in revenue).
Where things stand: The total national debt was $35.46 trillion in fiscal year 2024, while the national deficit was $710.94 billion as of October 2024.
Promises.
Issue: Costs for seniors on Social Security
What’s been said: On the campaign trail last August, Trump suggested that Americans who rely on Social Security as their primary source of income are being hurt by Biden administration policies. As a remedy, Trump said he would eliminate the federal income tax some Social Security recipients pay on their benefits. The Social Security Administration estimates that roughly 40% of Social Security recipients pay federal taxes on their benefits, usually when they have other substantial income in addition to their benefits.
What we’ll track: Whether any tax reform legislation passed during Trump’s term includes a provision that eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security payments.
