This is part one of a two-part edition. You can read part two here.
Introduction.
12 months ago, we laid the groundwork to evaluate President Donald Trump’s second term as objectively as possible.
Our goal was to take a few objective metrics to judge a president’s success: Things like economic data, promises kept, and the sentiment of American citizens. Given how much analysis and opinion we engage with every day, we thought we could refer back to these benchmarks periodically as a nearly unimpeachable way to judge the president’s performance.
When I think back to this time 12 months ago, one big detail stands out: I wasn’t here. In fact, with the timing of a true troll, my son was born on the day of Trump’s inauguration. Just days before, we had published the set of metrics we’d use to evaluate the president. It was the last major piece we published before I stepped away from Tangle for a month.
Now, here we are. Trump’s second term is now one year old (just like my son), and I’m back in the driver’s seat, ready to use the metrics we developed last year to evaluate the Trump administration. Before we get started, I want to give a quick note about our process. The benchmarks we chose to track are mostly hard metrics, but with a few qualitative assessments. We wanted to include things that are easy to measure (like gas prices) as well as some things that take a little more effort to evaluate (like whether the administration has kept a promise or not). We put these benchmarks into four groups:
1) Traditional economic metrics that presidents are judged by (like the price of gas and unemployment rates) and economic metrics we think their administrations should be judged by (like how many people have credit card debt).
2) Promises — that is, the things President Trump said he would do before he took office. Note: We are not giving our opinion on Trump’s promises, just evaluating his follow-through on them.
3) National interests — that is, the successes and failures of our foreign policy, the safety of the American people at home, and the strength of our domestic institutions. This is a mix of Trump’s priorities and things we think are important.
4) Lastly, we’ll review some predictions from commentators we found noteworthy last January and wanted to capture for posterity, so we can compare the national mood then to now.
Today’s edition is our best effort at reviewing Trump’s presidency dispassionately, objectively, and without any of our own opinions mixed in (though I’ll offer some reflections at the end of Part 2). If you want to hear a more subjective assessment — where Kmele Foster, Ari Weitzman and I sit down to discuss what surprised us, what didn’t, and the biggest pros and cons of year one — check out our latest episode of Suspension of the Rules:
As a final note, we plan to return to this review each January for the length of Trump’s term. When the next administration takes office in 2029, we’ll do the same.
Without further ado, let’s get started.
Metrics.
Issue: Gas prices
What we’re tracking: This one started simple: We wanted to use AAA’s price tracker to compare the price of gas on January 17, 2025, to the price on January 22, 2026.
However, we decided to make the metric more robust by averaging the prices of all fuels by fuel type, weighting them by usage, and comparing an average of readings taken at the beginning of the past three months to today. You can see this (and other averaged calculations) on our dashboard here.
Where things were: On January 17, 2025, the three-month national weighted average was $3.32 per gallon.
Where things stand: As of January 22, the three-month weighted average was $3.22 per gallon (–3.01%).
Issue: Housing prices
What we’re tracking: Both home prices and the health of the rental market. We’re using two metrics to track home prices: the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, and the median home prices as measured by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). We’re also using two indicators to measure the health of the rental market: Redfin’s measure of the median U.S. asking rent and a sample of rental vacancy rates in the ten largest U.S. cities as measured by the Census Bureau.
A note about these metrics: Given the seasonal variance of housing prices, we are taking rolling averages for both the current readings and the baseline readings for the monthly Case-Shiller Index; the Redfin figures, though reported monthly, already represent three-month rolling averages. The FRED pricing data, and our custom vacancy-rate composite, are based on quarterly reports.
Where things were: The three-month average baseline of the Case-Shiller Index, as of October 2024, was 324.61. The median sales price of houses sold in the United States in Q3 2024 was $415,300. From July to August 2024, the median U.S. asking rent was $1,745. Lastly, the population-weighted average vacancy rate in the ten largest U.S. metropolitan areas as of Q3 2024 was 6.87%.
Where things stand: The three-month average baseline of the Case-Shiller Index, as of October 2025, was 329.10 (+1.4%). The median sales price of houses sold in the United States in Q2 2025 (the last quarter with reported figures) was $410,800 (–1.1%). From July to August 2025, the median U.S. asking rent was $1,790 (+2.6%). Lastly, the population-weighted average vacancy rate in the ten largest U.S. metropolitan areas as of Q3 2025 was 7.06% (a 0.19-point increase).
Issue: Financial markets
What we’re tracking: While the stock market is not the economy, the performance of retail investments is one important indicator of economic health. We’ve recorded readings from the leading market indices — the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ — as well as the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note.
Where things were: On January 16, 2025, the Dow Jones closed at 43,153, the S&P 500 closed at 5,937, and the NASDAQ closed at 19,338; on January 20, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note was 4.61%.
Where things stand: Here are the three-month averages for these metrics. Dow Jones: 48,388 (+12.1%), S&P 500: 6,869 (+15.7%), NASDAQ: 23,348 (+20.7%), and the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note: 4.14% (down 0.47 points).
Issue: Personal finances
What we’re tracking: Savings and debt of U.S. households. For savings, we’ll use the Personal Savings Rate (PSAVERT), which tracks the percentage of disposable income that households save rather than spend on consumption. For household debt, we’ll use the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s debt tracker, which accounts for housing and non-housing categories.
Where things were: In January 2025, the three-month average PSAVERT was 4.77%; total U.S. housing debt as of Q4 2024 was $13.00 trillion, and total non-housing debt stood at $5.04 trillion. In Q3 2024, Americans’ total credit card balance was $1.17 trillion, an 8.1% increase from the year prior.
Where things stand: As of November 2025, the three-month average for PSAVERT was 3.73% (down 1.04 points); for Q3 2025, total U.S. housing debt was $13.49 trillion (+3.8%) and total non-housing debt was $5.09 trillion (+1.0%). Americans’ total credit card balance was $1.23 trillion (+5.1%).
Issue: Economic activity
What we’re tracking: The growth in and total of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and FRED.
Where things were: GDP had increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024 — following increases of 3.1% in Q3 2024, 3.0% in Q2 2024, and 1.3% in Q1 2024. Total annualized GDP as of Q4 2024 was $29.8 trillion.
Where things stand: GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.4% (a 2.1-point increase) in Q3 2025 — following an increase of 3.8% in Q2 2025 and a decrease of 0.5% in Q1. Total annualized GDP as of Q3 2025 was $31.1 trillion (+4.4%).
Issue: Employment
What we’re tracking: Department of Labor data measuring several things: the unemployment rate, nonfarm jobs, the labor force participation rate, and the number of people not in the labor force but seeking a job.
Where things were: In January 2025, the three-month average unemployment rate was 4.1%. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 256,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 160 million. The labor-force participation rate was 62.5%, and 5.5 millionpeople were not in the labor force but said they wanted a job.
Note: The 2025 government shutdown disrupted labor data collection efforts in October 2025 and delayed the release of November 2025’s jobs report.
Where things stand: In December 2025, the three-month average unemployment rate was 4.43% (up 0.33 points), with the revised rates for the previous 12 months ranging from 4% to 4.5%. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 50,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 159.5 million (–0.3%). The labor force participation rate was 62.4% (down 0.1 points), and 6.2 million people (+12.7%) were not in the labor force but said they wanted a job.
Where things were: In December 2024, the CPI increased 2.9% on an unadjusted annual basis and 0.4% from the previous month. Core CPI rose 0.2% from the previous month. In November, the PCE rose 2.4% annually and 0.1% from the previous month.
The three-month averages in January for these metrics were: CPI: 314.35, Core CPI: 323.55, PCE: 20,430.03.
Where things stand: When Trump entered office, the latest three-month average for the CPI increased over the baseline average by 3.43%, Core CPI increased by 2.35%, and PCE increased by 4.28%.
Issue: Consumer confidence
What we’re tracking: Consumer confidence using the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, which uses surveying to measure how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about their financial situations, the economy, and their purchasing plans.
Where things were: Since some expectations of Trump’s performance were baked into Consumer Sentiment in January, we’re reading the three-month average of consumer sentiment in November, before Trump was elected. That measure for Consumer Sentiment was 70.8.
Where things stand: In January 2026, the three-month average of the Consumer Sentiment Index was 53.4 (–24.6%).
Issue: Interest rates
What we’re tracking: Changes to the Federal Reserve’s range for the federal funds rate (also known as the interest rate), as well as the average 30-year mortgage rate as measured by Freddie Mac.
Where things were: In January 2025, the Fed’s interest rate was 4.25%–4.50%; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2024.
The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.16%, up from the year-low of 6.08% in September 2024.
Where things stand: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the current federal funds rate stands at 3.50%–3.75% (down 75 basis points). President Trump has called on the central bank to cut rates more aggressively, publicly criticizing Chairman Jerome Powell and calling for him to step down. The FOMC’s next meeting begins on January 27, and economists do not expect it to vote for another rate cut.
The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.09% as of January 22 (down 0.07 points).
Where things were: In January 2025, the three-month average of U.S. field production of crude oil was 13,324,333 barrels per day.
Where things stand: In October 2025, the three-month average of U.S. field production of crude oil was 13,839,667 barrels per day (+3.87%), a new all-time high.
Issue: National debt and deficit
What we’re tracking: Changes to the national debt (the total amount of outstanding borrowing owed by the U.S. government) and the deficit (the total amount the U.S. government has spent exceeding what it has collected in revenue).
Where things were: The total national debt was $35.46 trillion in fiscal year 2024, and the national deficit was $1.83 trillion.
Where things stand: The total national debt was $37.64 trillion (+6.1%) in fiscal year 2025, and the national deficit was $1.78 trillion (–2.7%).
One metric that we did not list last year that gives a more complete picture is the amount of debt held by the public, which excludes money the federal government owes to itself. On January 21, 2025, the public held approximately $28.9 trillion of debt; as of January 20, 2026, the publicly held debt is approximately $30.8 trillion (+6.6%).
The Congressional Budget Office projected in December that the federal budget deficit totaled $601 billion in the first quarter of 2026, $110 billion less than the deficit recorded in Q1 of 2025. If this continues, the U.S. deficit will still increase in fiscal year 2026 but by a smaller amount than the year prior.
Promises.
Issue: No tax on Social Security benefits.
What’s been said: On the campaign trail, Trump said that Americans who rely on Social Security as their primary source of income were being hurt by Biden administration policies. As a remedy, Trump said he would eliminate the federal income tax some Social Security recipients pay on their benefits. The Social Security Administration estimated that roughly 40% of Social Security recipients pay federal taxes on their benefits, usually when they have other substantial income in addition to those benefits.
What we’re tracking: Whether any tax reform legislation passed during Trump’s term includes a provision that eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security payments.
Where things stand: It’s complicated. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) included a temporary additional standard tax deduction of $6,000 for filers aged 65 or older (and $12,000 per couple), which the administration claims effectively eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security payments. Effectively, that’s almost right — according to a White House press sheet, 88% of Social Security beneficiaries will no longer pay any income tax because of this provision.
However, the provision definitively does not eliminate the tax on Social Security benefits. Furthermore, this is a deduction for seniors that is set to expire in 2028, meaning that the next president will have to either approve legislation to continue the deduction or let it lapse.
Issue: The war in Ukraine
What’s been said: At various points during his campaign, Trump promised to help negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine either before his inauguration or in the early days of his presidency. After Trump took office, his advisers said they were looking at a timeline of months to resolve the conflict.
What we’re tracking: Whether and when an end to the war in Ukraine is negotiated, and if the U.S. is directly involved.
Where things stand: Some progress, but the promise of a quick resolution was not achieved. After the initial talks early in Trump’s presidency stalled in dramatic fashion, the ambitious early deadline to negotiate an end to the war has flown by, resulting in a year of stalemate with Ukraine refusing to budge on ceding territory to Russia and Russia refusing to agree to any security guarantees. On Thursday, Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met at Davos to discuss a potential peace deal and reportedly made progress, specifically regarding postwar economic recovery. However, reports of such progress have been common during Trump’s first year, and now — more than a year after he promised to end the war in Ukraine — no peace treaty is on the table, though Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are meeting in Abu Dhabi for the first-ever trilateral discussions on January 23.
Issue: Israel–Palestine
What’s been said: Trump promised to secure a deal to end the war in Gaza before his inauguration, saying that broader conflicts in the Middle East were “going to get solved.” His incoming administration played a key role in advancing a ceasefire deal with a roadmap toward peace before he took office.
What we’re tracking: If the ceasefire deal negotiated last January is progressing as planned, and whether any new conflicts break out in the region, with a particular focus on Israel, Hamas, Lebanon (and Hezbollah), Iran, Syria, and Yemen.
Where things stand: Substantial progress.
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