Podcast, polls and predictions.
I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, ad-free, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum — then “my take.” You can read Tangle for free or subscribe for Friday editions, and you can reach me anytime by replying to this email. If someone sent you this email, they’re asking you to sign up. You can do that by clicking here.
We’re finally at election day. Also, after a year of talking about it, a month of playing around on my computer and a weekend of work, the first-ever Tangle podcast is here.
You can listen to the podcast on Spotify here.
You can listen to the podcast on my Anchor page here.
You can listen to the podcast on Soundcloud here.
This whole thing is an hour and twenty minutes long because there is an unbelievable amount of stuff to cover in a final election round up. But I also know some people don’t have that kind of time (though I do hope you listen to the whole thing). Below, you’ll find some timestamps for a breakdown of what I discuss.
Today’s listen: 1 hr and 21 mins.
:00 - 14:53
Introduction, hellos and what the last batch of polls are telling us.
14:53 - 20:28
The early vote and what we can take away from the numbers so far. Plus, the data in there that’s sticking out to me.
What I’ll be watching for tonight as the results come in: the red and blue mirages as well as the Florida county that could be the earliest indication of who will win.
27:20 - 38:01
Florida, the best political advertisement of the week, and how Trump can pull off another win this year.
38:02 - 48:10
The court battles, voter suppression, counting the ballots and the known unknowns.
My mom’s rejected ballot in Pennsylvania, my prediction in Pennsylvania, and why my home state feels uniquely positioned to defy the data.
54:25 - 1:01:23
My electoral college prediction, my hot take about Joe Biden’s path to victory and how this election could change the way we think about the electoral college map in the United States.
1:01:24 - 1:13:53
The Senate races. Who will end up with the majority and what’s going to happen in Arizona, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas.
1:13:53 - 1:19:20
What to expect on election day and in the days that follow (note: we’re going to need to be patient). A closing message about the dangerous stuff that’s going to pop up in the next 72 hours, and how to be a responsible citizen along the way. Plus, some acknowledgments.
1:19:20 - 1:20:50
This is my first ever Tangle podcast. If you know anyone interested in politics who is looking for a full pre-election round-up, this is it. Feel free to forward this email to them or go to my Anchor page and share the podcast from there. You can also share the link to the Spotify show on social media channels like Instagram.