> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.readtangle.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Could Texas turn blue? - URL: https://www.readtangle.com/otherposts/could-texas-turn-blue/ - Published: 2026-10-19T17:01:42.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-19T17:01:42.000Z - Description: Ken Paxton and James Talarico are in a nail-biter. - Author: Isaac Saul - Tags: take-only, #hide My rule for writing about Texas politics is pretty simple: I work under the assumption that it is a red state until that assumption stops being correct. The [one time I deviated from the strategy](https://www.readtangle.com/where-the-2020-election-stands/#:~:text=In%20this%20narrative,of%20the%20blame), I got it woefully wrong. I never got too worked up about the possibility that Beto O’Rourke, MJ Hegar, or Colin Allred could rewrite electoral maps. I won’t overestimate Talarico’s odds here, either, despite how unpopular President Trump is, or how bad of a candidate Paxton is, or how neck-and-neck this race seems. Still, both candidates’ cases for victory are pretty easy to craft. Let’s start with the case for why Talarico is going to win: President Trump is historically unpopular. Gasoline prices are high and diesel prices are through the roof, which is going to hurt Trump in a state with many long-haul drivers and pickup trucks. The president won Texas by 14 points in 2024, supported in large part by the Latino vote and anti-Kamala Harris sentiment. Now, Latinos are [shifting](https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/19/politics/latino-voters-shift-republicans-midterm-elections?ref=readtangle.com) back to the left, Democrats have a much stronger candidate on the ballot and we’re in a midterm election, which historically hurts the incumbent party. The closest analogue here might be the 2018 midterm race, when Trump was in office and O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of flipping Ted Cruz’s Senate seat, despite polls showing him much further behind. These races come down to turnout, and Democrats seem [much more committed to voting](https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2026/09/29/texas-senate-election-beto-cruz-talarico-paxton?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=Stunning%20stat%3A,S.%20Senate%20primary.) than Republicans do this election season. Speaking of Republicans, Ken Paxton is a disaster. He’s a [comically corrupt](https://www.readtangle.com/texas-primary-runoff-paxton-cornyn/#:~:text=politics%20in%20Texas.%E2%80%9D-,My%20take.,-Reminder%3A%20%E2%80%9CMy%20take) (alleged) adulterer, in a national environment where voters [say](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-cost-living-concerns-weigh-gop-midterms?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=The%20top%20five%20voter%20concerns%20are%20government%20corruption%20%2860%25%20extremely%20concerned%29%2C%20inflation%20%2858%25%29%2C%20gas%20prices%20%2850%25%29%2C%20government%20leadership%20%2849%25%29%2C%20and%20healthcare%20%2848%25%29.%20And%20double%20digits%20more%20trust%20the%20Democrats%20than%20the%20Republicans%20to%20handle%20each%20of%20those.) corruption is their number-one issue and in a state where traditional marital values are popular. Leaks from Paxton’s campaign [portray](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/07/gop-paxton-money-texas-senate-01109800?ref=readtangle.com) a candidate who knows Trump is hurting him and can’t find his footing on the trail. On paper, all the momentum and evidence look good for Talarico. While O’Rourke made noise, he [never led](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2018/texas/cruz-vs-orourke?ref=readtangle.com) a single poll; Talarico has [had an advantage](https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/texas?ref=readtangle.com) in the polls since August and is running in a much more favorable environment. Plus, the concocted conspiracy theory that Talarico was checked into a mental health facility reeks of desperation. If it weren’t for Elon Musk floating Paxton’s campaign, Talarico’s historic fundraising numbers would be a giant advantage and a huge story. In southwest Texas, the administration’s attempt to build a border wall in the Big Bend region and National Park is activating [huge blowback](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvZTGs70sjg&ref=readtangle.com) from a bipartisan coalition of politicians, ranchers, hunters, river guides, small business owners, and even law enforcement. And while Trump accused Talarico of avoiding a debate, the reality is Talarico’s campaign has [repeatedly tried](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/10/12/564154/talarico-returns-to-campaign-trail-renewing-call-for-debate-with-paxton/?ref=readtangle.com) to organize a debate with Paxton, and Paxton keeps dodging him — so much so that Talarico ended up doing a solo town hall with Texas voters that was aired on CNN last Wednesday. Anecdotally, I’d add that Talarico’s campaign has a tremendous amount of enthusiasm among Democrats in Texas. I live in New Jersey full time but own property in West Texas, where I spent my summers growing up and now spend a lot of my winters. I’ve never felt anything like the current political momentum there, and it’s all going in one direction: an all-out effort to oust Gov. Greg Abbott (R), stop Ken Paxton, and rein in President Trump. | Get more of the story... We broke down the race with just the facts, and then we picked out the best arguments from conservative, progressive, and independent writers in today's free newsletter so you can make up your own mind. [**Read them here.** ](https://www.readtangle.com/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-october-2026/?ref=take-only) | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | For Democrats, that all sounds pretty exciting. But the case for Paxton is still compelling. At baseline, Texas is a red state. The state doesn’t collect party registration data, but Trump’s decisive victory in 2024 is one of the best measures of how voters break in statewide elections. A recent YouGov [survey](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw%5Ftx%5F20260921%5Flv.pdf?ref=readtangle.com) has 41% of likely voters in Texas identifying as Republican, 26% as Democrat, and 28% as independent — close, but still a healthy Republican advantage. Meanwhile, the core issues that are driving Trump’s unpopularity — the war in Iran, affordability, and the immigration crackdown — are all softened in Texas. Yes, diesel prices are high nationally, and Texas has [faced its own economic emergency](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/28/texas-gas-diesel-prices-emergency-declaration-war-abbott/?ref=readtangle.com) over those costs. But unlike other states, Texas also has an upside from the war: Its oil production is [thriving](https://thetexan.news/issues/energy/texas-oil-industry-signals-production-boost-as-iran-negotiations-continue/article%5F0ab83709-bae0-4a07-9427-79edd24d4583.html?ref=readtangle.com), meaning Texas producers can charge more, juice profits, and provide a lot of jobs. Trump’s nationally unpopular mass-deportation effort [has a lot of support in Texas](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-poll/?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=But%20some%20things%20are%20different%20in%20Texas%20than%20in%20the%20country%20overall%3A%20The%20Trump%20administration%27s%20deportation%20program%20gets%20more%20support%20in%20Texas%2C%20compared%20to%20the%20most%20recent%20CBS%20News%20national%20poll%2C%20and%20that%20advantages%20Paxton.%C2%A0). And Trump, who is still good at turning out his base, has spent a lot of political capital throwing his weight behind Paxton. And then there’s Musk. With nearly $160 million spent already, he’s single-handedly funding super PACs that are blanketing the state in pro-Paxton or anti-Talarico ads. And, if you watched the CNN town hall, voters were more focused on Talarico’s progressive social views (some from as recently as 2020 and 2021) than on his populist left economic views, which is a problem for his campaign. We’ve seen that focus on progressive social views work for the GOP before, and Republican groups are even running the same “[He is for they/them](https://www.ms.now/news/they-them-attack-republicans-democrats-midterm?ref=readtangle.com)” ad against Talarico that was famously effective against Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. [As I detailed in my latest YouTube video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbMCeI19PPE&&ref=readtangle.com), fear is a powerful and effective campaign strategy, one Texas Republicans are deploying to a much higher degree than Talarico in this cycle (they even have AI-generated ads of [Talarico defacing a Bible](https://x.com/KenPaxtonTX/status/2097325814689743049?ref=readtangle.com)). Finally, the “closeness” of the race could be a total mirage, anyway. In 2024, polling [showed](https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/texas/?ref=readtangle.com) Trump with a roughly seven-point lead and he won by 14\. In that year’s Senate race, polls [showed](https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-polls/texas?ref=readtangle.com) Cruz up about four points on Colin Allred; he won by over eight points. In the 2022 governor’s race, Abbott led O’Rourke by an [average](https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-polls/texas?ref=readtangle.com) of eight points; he won by about 11\. Which is all just to say that the polling may be tight (and point to a Talarico advantage), but I have less confidence in current polls than I have in a long time. I’m holding off on any midterm predictions until we get closer to Election Day, but this race obviously has the potential to tilt the Senate map — and make Texas history. Moved by the take? Share it! ## Join Tangle for free Get perspectives from across the political spectrum on today's most important issues, delivered directly to your inbox. Subscribe for Free Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.