> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.readtangle.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The August economic reports. - URL: https://www.readtangle.com/august-economic-report/ - Published: 2026-09-09T15:52:58.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-09T15:52:59.000Z - Description: Plus, looking back at the life of Mao Zedong. - Author: Ari Weitzman - Tags: Economy, Inflation, President Donald Trump, August jobs report, Jobs report, Jobs, Inflation numbers, Mao Zhedong, This day in history, CPI, Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, Consumer sentiment, U.S.-Canada relations Happy Wednesday everyone. This is Tangle **Managing Editor Ari Weitzman**, tagging in for today’s edition with **an economic update** and adding some predictions of my own. This edition is bookended by **an interview about al-Qaeda** and **a noteworthy Appalachian Trail hiker**. But first, I have an announcement. The maples are bronzing and the morning chill is lingering — fall is here. I’ll let the redoubtable Rainer Maria Rilke (translated from German) make the call: > Lord: It is time. The summer was immense. > Now overlap the sundials with your shadows > And on the meadows let the winds run free. > > Allow the fruits on the vine to swell. > Grant them a few more warm, transparent days, then press > Their final sweetness into heavy wine. > > He who has no house now will never have one. > He who is alone will stay alone, > Will sit, read, write long letters through the night > And walk the boulevards up and down, restlessly, > While the dry leaves blow. ### What happened to al-Qaeda? This Friday marks 25 years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Ahead of the anniversary, The Atlantic’s Graeme Wood published a detailed report on the attack’s impact on the Middle East and the state of al-Qaeda. Senior Editor Will Kaback spoke with Wood about the surprising information we’ve learned about Osama bin Laden’s motivations, why al-Qaeda has faltered, and whether U.S. policy has addressed the threat of future attacks. You can listen to the interview [here](https://shows.acast.com/tangle/episodes/preview-special-edition-what-happened-to-al-qaeda-will-kabac?ref=readtangle.com). ### Quick hits. 1. Rep. Chris Pappas (D) and former Sen. John Sununu (R) advanced in their respective Senate primaries in New Hampshire in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). ([The result](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/chris-pappas-john-sununu-new-hampshire-senate-primary-winner-rcna596479?ref=readtangle.com)) 2. The United Kingdom banned trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank in response to what the country described as ethnic cleansing of Palestinians by Israeli settlers; France and Canada announced they will implement similar policies. ([The ban](https://apnews.com/article/uk-west-bank-israel-settlement-sanctions-b4d7354221bfe0c48e4bfce7a3b7624b?ref=readtangle.com)) 3. Houthi rebels in Yemen struck energy and civilian sites in Saudi Arabia, wounding at least 73 people and halting operations at some energy facilities. ([The strikes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-led-coalition-yemen-says-73-injured-houthi-attacks-kingdom-2026-09-08/?ref=readtangle.com)) 4. The Trump administration filed an emergency application asking the Supreme Court to lift a block on a federal citizenship database ahead of the midterm elections. ([The request](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/08/us/politics/trump-supreme-court-dhs-citizenship.html?ref=readtangle.com)) 5. New York City released documents that appear to show that city officials were aware of air-quality health risks in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks but withheld the information from the public. 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On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reported](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm?ref=readtangle.com) that the U.S. economy added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, significantly exceeding economists’ projections, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Furthermore, the jobs numbers for June and July were revised upward by 11,000 and 44,000, respectively. Separately, in August, the bureau [released](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?ref=readtangle.com) its latest inflation report, finding that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% from June to July and 3.4% from the year prior. Energy prices, which surged earlier this year after the start of the Iran war, [fell](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=3.4-,Energy,-%2D1.5) 1.5% on a monthly basis but have risen 14.7% over the past 12 months. The August CPI report will be released on Friday. Also in August, the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers [found](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?ref=readtangle.com) that consumer sentiment fell 6.3% between July and August and 11.2% year-over-year. The next consumer sentiment report will also be released on Friday. President Donald Trump and other administration officials have [called on](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/05/trump-warsh-fed-september-rate-hike.html?ref=readtangle.com) the Fed to lower interest rates ahead of next week’s meeting. On Friday, Trump touted the latest jobs report and [said](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117213056648777213?ref=readtangle.com) he would halt trade with countries with which the United States has a trade deficit if the FOMC does not cut rates. However, Chairman Warsh has recently suggested that the committee is weighing a rate increase if inflation does not begin to cool. Energy prices have been impacted by developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the U.S. military have imposed restrictions preventing oil tankers and other commercial vessels from transiting the waterway. While the strait remains largely closed, Energy Secretary Chris Wright [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/energy-secretary-chris-wright-tells-cnbc-that-more-than-17-million-barrels-of-oil-transited-hormuz-on-monday.html?ref=readtangle.com) last Wednesday that over 17 million barrels of crude oil exited the Persian Gulf on Monday, August 31, reaching a high since the war disrupted the roughly 20-million-barrel daily [average](https://www.britannica.com/topic/How-Much-Oil-Passes-Through-the-Strait-of-Hormuz?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=The%20roughly%2020.3%20million%20barrels%20of%20petroleum%20and%20crude%20oil%20that%20pass%20through%20the%20strait%20per%20day%20account%20for%20roughly%2025%20percent%20of%20the%20world%E2%80%99s%20maritime%20oil%20trade.). Finally, on Tuesday, Canada [imposed](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-retaliatory-tariffs-us-goods-milk-perfume-golf-clubs-trump/?ref=readtangle.com) tariffs on $20 billion in U.S. goods in retaliation for [U.S. tariffs](https://www.readtangle.com/us-canada-trade-war-2026/) on $20 billion in Canadian goods levied on August 22\. Both countries are now tariffing an array of goods, with Canada’s duties expected to have an outsized impact on manufacturers in Midwestern states. Below are views from the left and right on the state of the U.S. economy. After that, Managing Editor Ari Weitzman gives his take. | What the left is saying. The left is worried about the economy, especially the labor market.Some blame President Trump’s policies for market stagnation.Others think artificial intelligence is driving some economic uncertainty. | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | **On his Substack, Robert Reich discussed** [**“the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy.”**](https://robertreich.substack.com/p/the-biggest-problem-facing-the-us) “The Labor Department reported \[last Friday\] that the United States added 162,000 jobs in August. That’s more than expected, especially given how few jobs the country has added over the last few months,” Reich wrote. “But there are three real reasons to be concerned… Prices continue to rise faster than wages — which means most Americans are getting poorer. Average hourly earnings rose by just 10 cents, or 0.3%, for the month. That brings the year-to-year increase in hourly earnings to 3.1%. But prices have risen 3.4% over the year.” “Another concern I have is that while employers aren’t firing many workers, they’re also not hiring. A low-hire, low-fire labor market doesn’t create opportunities for advancement. It’s also difficult for young people to get into,” Reich said. “\[Trump is\] interfering in the jobs market and the economy in ways that will make things worse. Bad enough that he’s waging a costly war in Iran and imposing costly tariffs around the world — both of which are driving up prices… The biggest problem facing the U.S. economy right now is Trump.” **In MS NOW, Steve Benen said** [**“Trump trips over his economic illiteracy (again).”**](https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-economy-interest-rates-trade-job-growth-bond-market-economic-illiteracy?ref=readtangle.com) “Donald Trump frequently makes comments about the economy, the vast majority of which are plainly wrong,” Benen wrote. “\[On Friday\], the president threatened to curtail all trade with a wide swath of U.S. trading partners unless the Federal Reserve agreed to slash interest rates… This was a mess for all sorts of reasons. The Fed functions as an independent entity, which is not supposed to raise or lower interest rates in response to White House extortion schemes. But Trump made things worse by arguing that economic growth is wholly unrelated to inflation, and that we’re entitled to lower interest rates, not because of economic conditions, but because he thinks we’re awesome. “In case this weren’t quite enough, the president later celebrated good monthly job growth in August by pointing to what he described as ‘the Trump Boom.’ That didn’t make sense, either,” Benen said. “So far in 2026, the U.S. economy is generating roughly 80,000 jobs per month. While that’s better than last year, it reflects a sharp decline from the final year of Joe Biden’s presidency, when the economy added over 120,000 jobs per month. In fact, excluding the 2020 pandemic from the equation, the first year of Trump’s current term was the worst for American job growth since the Great Recession, and the second year of Trump’s current term is on track to \[be\] the second worst. That’s the opposite of a ‘boom.’” **In Bloomberg, Jonathan Levin declared** [**“America’s labor market is paralyzed by policy.”**](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-04/america-s-labor-market-is-paralyzed-by-policy-and-economic-uncertainty?ref=readtangle.com) “When you can’t predict next quarter’s bottom line, you’re better off retaining optionality, delaying staffing decisions that can involve steep up-front costs and are difficult to reverse. So if you want to know why America’s ‘no hire, no fire’ labor market has lasted as long as it has, blame the surfeit of uncertainty — much of it self-induced,” Levin wrote. “Layoffs remain mercifully low and unemployment is a respectable 4.1%, but new jobs are hard to come by… workers are hesitant to quit… and wage growth has softened.” “Weak wage growth (average hourly earnings rose 3.1% from a year earlier even as consumer prices rose more than that) and the widespread nature of the hiring lull (spanning both white- and blue-collar jobs) suggest this is primarily about weak labor demand, not supply,” Levin said. “One likely culprit I’ve alluded to is the White House’s endless barrage of shocks. Although some of them were foisted upon us or predate Trump 2.0… the latest have the White House as the instigator... Into this tempest emerges artificial intelligence, which challenges employers’ math in more complex ways… Aware of the wide distribution of outcomes, companies are sitting on their hands.” | What the right is saying. The right is mixed on the latest economic news, with some arguing that Trump’s economic policies are starting to bear fruit.Others criticize Canada’s management of trade disputes.Still others say the president’s call to lower interest rates is misguided. | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | **In The New York Post, Daniel McCarthy said** [**“Trumponomics triumphs in US jobs report — just in time for the midterms.”**](https://nypost.com/2026/09/08/opinion/trumponomics-triumphs-in-us-jobs-report-in-time-for-midterms/?ref=readtangle.com) “American manufacturing is on the rebound — and that good news could hardly come at a better time for President Donald Trump, as Republicans gird themselves for the midterm elections just two months from now,” McCarthy wrote. “Manufacturing isn’t the only sector that’s on a hiring spree; businesses across the board added 162,000 new jobs in August… The workforce participation rate rose as well — which matters, because people who drop out of the labor force are invisible in unemployment rates that only count those who are looking for work.” “This economy is pulling Americans who’d given up hope off the sidelines and putting them to work. That’s a success not only for Trump’s economic policy, but for his immigration crackdown, too: It’s no longer so easy for companies to abandon Americans by hiring foreign workers instead,” McCarthy said. “Establishment economists predicted none of this… Trump won’t be on the ballot Nov. 3, but jobs will be — especially those in manufacturing. They’ll be lost if a Democratic Congress adds its power to the campaign in the courts that’s trying to drag America back to the age of offshoring.” **In the Washington Examiner, Brandon Farris said** [**“Trump didn’t threaten Canada’s sovereignty. Carney just handed it to Beijing.”**](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/op-eds/4714769/canada-us-steel-tariffs-sovereignty/?ref=readtangle.com) “Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says the United States asked Canada to surrender its sovereignty during trade negotiations that his government recently abandoned in dramatic fashion. The reality is exactly the opposite: Washington was asking Canada to do more to protect its own steel industry,” Farris wrote. “Global steel excess capacity reached 640 million metric tons in 2025, according to the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity. China is directly responsible for nearly 57% of that excess.” “We’ve seen what happens when Beijing gains control of strategically important supply chains. China has demonstrated its willingness to restrict access to critical materials to advance its geopolitical interests. Allowing the same dependence to develop in steel would threaten economic and national security,” Farris said. “Since President Donald Trump first imposed the Section 232 steel tariffs in 2018, steelmakers have announced or begun roughly $47 billion in projects to expand and modernize domestic production… The European Union, for example, is pursuing parallel measures to strengthen its steel industry. Canada has taken a different path.” **In Blaze Media, Daniel Horowitz wrote** [**“Trump’s interest-rate fantasy runs into debt gravity.”**](https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/trumps-interest-rate-fantasy-runs-into-debt-gravity?ref=readtangle.com) “You can have very low interest rates, and you can have debt-driven inflation. You just can’t have both at the same time. That is the reality President Trump refuses to recognize,” Horowitz said. “At the core of the president’s half-baked plan to resuscitate the economy is a return to the good old days of near-zero interest rates… He wants endless spending for his projects, he doesn’t want the inflation it causes, and he wants to pay near-zero interest on the resulting record debt. Don’t we all?” “There is a simple reason the Fed can no longer wave a magic wand, return rates to near zero, and service the debt on the cheap as it did from the post-9/11 recession through COVID,” Horowitz wrote. “On September 11, 2001, gross federal debt was about $5.77 trillion, roughly 55% of GDP. In April 2007, before the financial crisis, it was about $8.84 trillion, or 63% of GDP. Today it exceeds $40 trillion and is roughly 123% of GDP. The long-term trajectory is even worse, because faster debt growth creates a vicious cycle: Treasury needs more buyers, inflation and fiscal risk force yields higher, and more existing debt rolls over at those higher rates.” | My take. Ari Weitzman Managing Editor ![Ari Weitzman](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/93/4a939b47-6a19-4b38-a13c-89d5a0f0d6dd/content/images/2025/05/Ari.jpg) | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Usually, Tangle focuses on how policy choices impact the economy, but today I want to make some predictions.The Fed will raise rates this year, not cut them, and draw President Trump’s ire.The national debt will keep rising, the AI bubble will burst, and higher education is facing a crisis. | | **Reminder:** This is where we share a personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, leave a comment or reply to this email. | Throughout the second Trump administration, every update on the economy Tangle has published has been focused on the impacts of tariffs, the persistence of inflation, rising gas prices, affordability, and employment. Today, instead of looking back, I want to look forward and undertake a fool’s errand: making predictions. I’m going to give you five predictions about the economy under the remainder of the Trump administration, starting with safe bets that will be proven correct or incorrect soon and increasing in both boldness and time horizon. **The Warsh–Trump honeymoon is ending.** *Heat rating: 🌶️* *Expiration: 10/01/2026* President Donald Trump’s thoughts on former Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are no secret. The president excoriated Powell for resisting rate cuts as the Fed continued its Sisyphean toil to deliver on its dual mandate, keeping employment up and inflation down. With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% benchmark, justification for a rate cut has thus far eluded the new Fed chair. September will not be a happy month for Trump. First, with the easiest prediction possible, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to either hold or raise rates on September 16, as Fed Governor Christopher Waller [recently signaled](https://www.ft.com/content/0a332e3c-e596-4f64-976a-d7746f91a9a9?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=readtangle.com). Waller’s comments caused bond yields to briefly dip but immediately continue their upward trajectory that [began in July](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y?ref=readtangle.com) — and they [spiked again](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/treasurys-bonds-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-data.html?ref=readtangle.com) following last week’s rosy jobs report. On the flip side of the macroeconomic equation, September has historically been the stock market’s [worst month](https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-stock-markets-breezy-summer-is-over-investors-beware-fb110133?mod=hp%5Flead%5Fpos1&ref=readtangle.com) of the year, ending lower than it started about half the time since 1928\. Extend the current benchmark rate of 3.5% or higher, add in high bond yields and a lethargic Dow, and multiply by high gas prices and uncertainty about tariffs — what do you get? Frustrated consumers, negative press about the economy coming into the midterms, and a president unhappy with his new Fed chairman. I expect Trump to explicitly criticize Kevin Warsh at least once by the end of the month. **The Fed will raise the interest rate by 50 basis points this year.** *Heat rating: 🌶️🌶️* *Expiration: 12/09/2026* It’s almost too easy to predict a rate boost of 25 basis points (or a quarter of a percent) before the end of the year. All the signs point to it. If current projections hold, however, 50 basis points is just as likely. The FOMC has three more meetings left in the year, and all the sober economic [analyses](https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-hike-three-economic-reports-this-week-to-watch-2026-9?ref=readtangle.com) you can find are [predicting](https://fortune.com/2026/09/07/wall-street-hike-expectations-kevin-warsh-fed-trump/?ref=readtangle.com) at least one rate hike between now and the year’s final meeting on December 9\. The [Fed watch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html&ref=readtangle.com) puts the odds of two rate hikes by December almost even with the chances of one, and basically no one who lives outside the White House or Mar-a-Lago is predicting a rate cut. If energy prices remain high and unemployment low, the Fed has no reason to cut rates and every reason to raise them. Watch for these two signals coming out on Friday. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index, a barometer the Fed uses to watch inflation. Economists [expect](https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-inflation-data-set-to-support-fed-rate-hike/?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=On%20a%20year%2Dago%20basis%2C%20top%2Dline%20PPI%2C%20which%20will%20be%20released%20on%20Thursday%2C%20is%20expected%20to%20advance%20by%205.2%25%20and%204.6%25%20in%20the%20core.%20CPI%2C%20which%20will%20be%20released%20on%20Friday%2C%20is%20forecast%20to%20increase%20by%203.4%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago%20for%20headline%20inflation%20and%20by%202.5%25%20in%20the%20core.) a 3.4% year-over-year increase in headline inflation, which would keep the metric well off of the Fed’s 2% target. Their reasoning is simple: Gas prices remain high due to the war in Iran, and import prices are elevated due to tariffs. Second, the University of Michigan will release its consumer sentiment survey. I think I can predict the headline: Consumer sentiment is bad — [still](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/get-chart.php?y=2026&m=7&n=1ar&d=ylch&f=pdf&k=f3e68a928fd456c40c3510396459d08d0579e6802d499581eb4c8eb26bd25eef&ref=readtangle.com)! It’s not only bad right now, but it’s worse than it was [at any point](https://www.factcheck.org/2025/10/bidens-final-numbers/?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=profits%20after%20taxes.-,Consumer%20Sentiment,-Consumer%20confidence%20experienced) in the Biden administration, when inflation was soaring and the vibecession was making headlines. Unless employment totally collapses, this equation equals more than one rate hike by the end of the year. **The national debt reaches $44 trillion by the end of 2027.** *Heat rating: 🌶️🌶️🌶️* *Expiration: 12/31/2027* The national debt equation is only marginally more complex than predicting rate increases. Obviously, if the Fed’s borrowing rate is high, then the government’s debt becomes more expensive. And as we repeat in Tangle just about every week at this point, servicing our national debt is now the federal government’s third-largest expense; so if that line item gets larger, the projected deficit gets higher. Our current gross national debt is already [over $40 trillion](https://www.readtangle.com/us-national-debt-2026/). For the last fiscal year, the federal deficit was approximately [$1.8 trillion](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/?ref=readtangle.com), and the Congressional Budget Office [projects](https://www.cato.org/blog/cbo-budget-economic-outlook-debt-projected-grow-record-highs?ref=readtangle.com) expenses to continue to outpace income for the current fiscal year. That adds about $2 trillion to the current figure; factoring in interest and inflation, and [forgetting the idea](https://www.readtangle.com/i-was-wrong-about-doge/) of any significant spending cuts, equals a *minimum* of $43 trillion in national debt by the end of next year. Taking the extra leap to get to $44 trillion isn’t difficult — it just requires a little bit of pessimism. Do you expect tariffs and oil disruption to continue? Do you think Congress will pass tax hikes and/or budget cuts? If you answered yes and no, respectively, then you’re probably looking at a national debt figure that is racing further and further away from us. **The AI bubble will burst, and it will be weird.** *Heat rating: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️* *Expiration: 9/9/2028* As blogger Rusty Foster [memorably put it](https://www.todayintabs.com/p/instant-expert-on-the-economy-2ae3?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=I%20know%2C%20so%20this%20is%20the%20point%20in%20your%20weekend%20BBQ%20chat%20where%20you%20need%20to%20be%20able%20to%20shift%20from%20data%20to%20%E2%9C%A8vibes%E2%9C%A8%20%20in%20order%20to%20keep%20the%20conversation%20flowing.%20Here%E2%80%99s%20Christopher%20Mims%20in%20the%20Wall%20St.%20Journal%20reporting%20that%20our%20economy%20might%20just%20be%20three%20AI%20data%20centers%20in%20a%20trench%20coat%3A) last year, the economy just might be three AI data centers in a trench coat. Some estimates [attribute](https://think.ing.com/opinions/how-much-is-ai-contributing-to-us-economic-growth/?ref=readtangle.com) as much as 30% of our GDP growth to investment in artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure. If you think AI is the future and that demand for the technology will continue to ride a line with a slope so steep you’ll need crampons and axes, then this is good news. But [if you believe](https://www.readtangle.com/data-center-pushback-grows/) that data center construction is based on projections that are too rosy to be believed, then that figure is concerning. Data centers are a political liability. CEOs are reporting that they’re investing in AI not as part of their business strategy but because [they’re afraid not to](https://pages.dataiku.com/global-ai-confessions-ceo-edition?ref=readtangle.com). Maybe a future approach to AI will be different, but LLM technology seems to be at its natural ceiling. If these models fail to meet their [unbelievable projections](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2026/06/21/5-more-ai-predictions-for-the-year-2030/?ref=readtangle.com#:~:text=3.%20Telepathy%20will%20be%20a%20well%2Destablished%20way%20to%20communicate.), then we’re not looking at a technologically revolutionized society but instead a much older and more common tale: a bubble. Typically, when bubbles pop, they crater a part of the economy. The AI bubble, though, will be different because it will probably be bad for capital investors and [good for workers](https://www.newsweek.com/employment-is-americas-load-bearing-institution-ai-will-test-it-opinion-12404611?ref=readtangle.com). Already, blue-collar workers and those without college degrees are experiencing [a very good job market](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/americans-without-college-degrees-are-having-one-of-the-best-job-markets-in-years-5f37d00e?ref=readtangle.com) — if AI doesn’t automate out the lower rungs of the career ladder, then that job market is set up to withstand a bursting bubble. I’m more concerned about the interaction of those two conditions: investors facing losses and workers facing opportunities. When conditions get rough, the haves tend to always end up ahead of the have-nots, and lay-offs follow closely behind lagging corporate earnings. When companies can instead decide to cut down their AI investments, though, that equation could look different. I expect that in two years, AI advancement will have waned and the unemployment rate will remain somewhere in the 3.5%–4.5% range. **Colleges will close, and soon.** *Heat rating: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️* *Expiration: 12/31/2028* The federal government isn’t the only major institution facing annual budget shortfalls. All across the country, our institutions of higher learning are bleeding money. A recent [Wall Street Journal report](https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/syracuse-student-application-enrollment-crisis-budget-ff142896?ref=readtangle.com) looked at Syracuse University to provide an example of the headwinds some schools are facing: Enrollment rates are lower, students increasingly only want to go to school in nicer climates, and the federal government is investing less in research grants that universities depend upon. That’s bad for schools like Syracuse in the university-dense Northeast. But take a step back: Colleges are simply struggling to deliver on their value proposition. If tuition continues to rise and the job market continues to improve for those without college degrees — while the biggest and most accessible product AI has delivered is the ability to churn out passable term papers — why would parents continue to shell out their life’s savings to send their kids to [“AI Cheaters Luxury Camp?”](https://www.joannejacobs.com/post/400k-for-ai-cheaters-luxury-camp-how-many-colleges-will-survive?ref=readtangle.com) They won’t. My favorite writer on the beat of issues in higher education is [former professor](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/09/elite-academia-leadership-hypocrisy/687969/?ref=readtangle.com) Tyler Austin Harper. Here’s [his take](https://x.com/Tyler%5FA%5FHarper/status/2094417969921012118?ref=readtangle.com) on the issue: “People are under-pricing the possibility of a black-swan-esque event where significant chunks of higher ed collapse suddenly. At some point parents will decide they will not pay $100–400k combined for their kids to cheat their way through college. I expect a bang, not a whimper.” I think he’s right. By the end of 2028, I wager not one but several major universities will announce they will be shutting their iron gates for good. **Take the survey:** What do you think of Ari’s predictions? [Let us know](https://interrobang.vercel.app/survey/f44e9fb1-af44-4d22-9784-045dee41f729?ref=readtangle.com). *Disagree? That*’*s okay. Our opinion is just one of many. Write in and let us know why, and we*’*ll consider publishing your feedback.* ### This day in history. ![Official portrait of Mao Zedong taken in 1950 | Chen Zhengqing](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/93/4a939b47-6a19-4b38-a13c-89d5a0f0d6dd/content/images/2026/09/data-src-image-fe883337-2481-43d4-9f97-d6360ab03f3f.png) Official portrait of Mao Zedong taken in 1950 | Chen Zhengqing On September 9, 1976, Mao Zedong, leader of China and one of the most infamous figures of the Cold War, died at 82\. In 1921, at 27 years old, Mao was a founding member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). As various warlords in a fractured China failed to unify under one government, the CCP and the Kuomintang nationalist party (KMT) allied in an attempt to form a cohesive country. By 1927, KMT leader Chiang Kai-shek turned against the communists, removing them from powerful positions within the party, and eventually resulting in a nationwide [massacre](https://www.sinicapodcast.com/p/this-week-in-chinas-history-the-shanghai?ref=readtangle.com) of hundreds of thousands of communists. In 1934, the CCP marched 6,000 miles under threat of the nationalists to relocate to Northwestern China. Mao began the trek as a follower, but he became the undisputed leader of the party the next year. When the CCP won the Chinese Civil War in 1949, Chiang and the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan, and the communist People’s Republic of China was established with Mao as its leader. In the 1950s, China joined the Korean War on behalf of communist North Korea and began Mao’s attempt to shift China from an agrarian to an industrial society with the “[Great Leap Forward](https://academic.oup.com/reference/62338/reference-article-abstract/554184195?login=false&ref=readtangle.com).” That initiative resulted in one of the worst famines in recorded history, killing between 15 and 45 million people. In the 60s, Mao led the “Cultural Revolution,” an attempt to eliminate capitalist elements of Chinese society, in which an additional one to two million were killed. However, after a long period of hostility, Mao began to improve relations with the United States in the 70s, culminating in [President Richard Nixon’s trip to China](https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/nixons-trip-china?ref=readtangle.com) in 1972\. Following his death in 1976, Mao’s hand-picked successor Hua Guofeng briefly took control before being outmaneuvered by reformers, who took power and shifted China towards market socialism. Today’s Partner Democrats and Republicans can’t agree on much, but here’s some bipartisan consensus:[ strangers don’t need your home address](https://deal.incogni.io/aff%5Fc?offer%5Fid=6&aff%5Fid=1007&ref=readtangle.com). Incogni scrubs your personal info from data brokers and other sites, then keeps checking when it pops back up. Privacy: surprisingly nonpartisan. [****Use code TANGLE for 55% off unlimited removals**](https://deal.incogni.io/aff%5Fc?offer%5Fid=6&aff%5Fid=1007&ref=readtangle.com)****.** [Get 55% - Start Removing My Data ](https://deal.incogni.io/aff%5Fc?offer%5Fid=6&aff%5Fid=1007&ref=readtangle.com) ### The extras. - **One year ago today** we covered [the August 2025 jobs report](https://www.readtangle.com/september-jobs-numbers-tariffs-unemployment-stagflation/). - **The most clicked link in our last regular newsletter** was for the [free newsletter from Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/subscribe/?ref=readtangle.com), which fact-checks the top news stories of the day. - **Nothing to do with politics:** Aapo “The Angus” Rautio [defends his Air Guitar World Championship title](https://apnews.com/video/aapo-the-angus-rautio-wins-2026-air-guitar-world-championship-in-finland-for-second-time-in-a-row-461cd4690ef841a0b0b488978a0616aa?ref=readtangle.com). - **Our last survey:** 3,048 readers responded to our survey on the state of the U.S. military under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with 80% saying they are highly concerned about the military’s preparedness. “Hegseth needs to go. He is a disaster for the US military,” one respondent said. “I am not concerned, because the military budget is so high. They can move resources around to where they are needed,” said another. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/93/4a939b47-6a19-4b38-a13c-89d5a0f0d6dd/content/images/2026/09/data-src-image-951d197e-3a2a-43d8-8ef2-29933c68f137.png) ### Have a nice day. Living to 91 is a feat worth celebrating in itself, but Dale Sanders has upped the ante for all nonagenarians. On the final day of August, Sanders (trail name: Grey Beard) completed the 2,193-mile thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, summiting Maine’s Mount Katahdin at the trail’s northern terminus. He is now the oldest hiker to complete a thru-hike, beating the record set by his then-83-year-old friend M.J. Eberhart (trail name: Nimblewill Nomad) in 2021\. Sanders estimated that he fell 71 times during the hike, including one that put him in the hospital and another just 200 yards from Katahdin’s summit. But he never lost sight of his goal. “I had to thank God, and I had to thank my support team and everybody that got me here,” he said. [The Associated Press has the story](https://apnews.com/article/appalachian-trail-oldest-hiker-grey-beard-fd7a9a735c2cc1d31412535a2d36f6d8?ref=readtangle.com).